Wisconsin's Supreme Court: Will Democrats Get Their Money's Worth?

A Costly Victory, Uncertain Returns

Democrats celebrated a hard-fought victory in Wisconsin's Supreme Court election, securing a liberal majority with a price tag exceeding $100 million. This exorbitant sum, nearly double the previous record for judicial spending, raises a crucial question: will this investment translate into tangible political gains, particularly regarding the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives?

While some Democrats, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, envisioned the newly cemented liberal majority redrawing congressional maps to their advantage, a legal memo from the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL) throws cold water on these aspirations. The memo argues that significant legal and practical obstacles stand in the way of any successful attempt to reconfigure districts before the 2024 elections.

"This is not the slam dunk that it was made out to be by partisans in this political contest," stated Lucas Vebber, deputy counsel for WILL.

A Tangled Web of Legal Precedent

In 2022, amidst a political stalemate between the Republican-controlled legislature and Democratic Governor Tony Evers, the Wisconsin Supreme Court, then with a conservative majority, intervened in the redistricting process. The court ultimately adopted a map proposed by Governor Evers, which adhered to a "least change" approach based on the 2011 maps, previously upheld in federal court.

WILL emphasizes that these maps had never been deemed gerrymandered. Despite Republican successes in subsequent House elections, retaining a 6-2 advantage in Wisconsin's delegation, some Democrats, like Rep. Mark Pocan, still allege gerrymandering. However, this claim overlooks the concentration of Democratic voters in the two largest cities – Milwaukee and Madison – where Democrats currently hold congressional seats.

Obstacles to Redrawing District Lines

Earlier this year, an attempt to challenge the existing maps and reopen the case was unanimously rejected by the court. Even with the new liberal majority, overturning this recent decision and the 2022 adoption of Governor Evers' map presents a significant hurdle. Furthermore, Justice Janet Protasiewicz's prior comments regarding "rigged" districts raise questions about potential conflicts of interest, further complicating the matter.

Even if these obstacles were overcome, WILL argues there is no "obvious basis" for revisiting the case, especially considering the arguable gerrymandering already present in the Evers map, favoring Democrats. The memo highlights the irony of such a challenge, stating, "Such a claim would be complicated by the fact that it was Governor Evers’ maps that were chosen..."

Federal Intervention Looms

WILL's memo further cautions that any attempt by the Wisconsin Supreme Court to alter the current congressional maps could invite intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court. Citing the 2023 Moore v. Harper decision, WILL argues that such a move could be seen as exceeding the bounds of ordinary judicial review and intruding upon the state legislature's role in redistricting.

While the issue of congressional maps served as a rallying cry for both sides during the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, actually achieving a redrawing before the 2024 election faces a steep uphill climb. The legal landscape is complex, precedent is established, and the specter of federal intervention looms large.